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<font size=3>El Dr Bryan F.J. Manly esta en la Argentina.<br><br>
Invitamos para mañana martes 5 de Octubre a las 14 hs. en el aula
Burkart<br><br>
Dará una charla sobre:<br><br>
"Improving Size Estimates Of Open Animal Populations When Animals
Can Be<br>
Aged."<br><br>
Much effort is expended to estimate the sizes of wild animal populations
but<br>
population size has proven to be a difficult parameters to estimate.
The<br>
capture-recapture estimation models often used are complicated,
require<br>
numerous assumptions, and estimates usually have large variances.
Sometimes<br>
the animals caught can be aged, but this information is not used
completely.<br>
This talk shows how to incorporate age information into size estimates
for<br>
open animal populations. The proposed method provides s ize estimates
from<br>
only two samples rather than the three usually required, allows
increased<br>
precision of estimates, and allows estimation using logistic
regression,<br>
rather than requiring the use of specialized programs that deal only
with<br>
mark-recapture data.<br>
However, a simulation study shows that although the method has
considerable<br>
promise more work is needed on its practical application. In particular
the<br>
estimated population sizes may not be robust to the assumptions
made,<br>
although this problem is als o likely to occur with all similar types
of<br>
model based capture-recapture analyses.<br><br>
<br>
El Dr. Manly es autor de mas de 140 publicaciones y los siguientes
libros:<br><br>
Stage-Structured Populations: Sampling, Analysis and Simulation (Chapman
and<br>
Hall, 1990)<br><br>
The Statistics of Natural Selection on Animal Populations (Chapman and
Hall,<br>
1985, 1987)<br><br>
Multivariate Statistical Methods: a Primer (Chapman and Hall, 1986,
1994)<br><br>
Randomization, Bootstrap and Monte Carlo Methods in Biology (Chapman
and<br>
Hall, 1991, 1997)<br><br>
The Design and Analysis of Research Studies (Cambridge University
Press,<br>
1992)<br><br>
Resource Selection by Animals: Statistical Design and Analysis (Chapman
and<br>
Hall, 1993, with L.M. McDonald and D.L. Thomas)<br><br>
Editor of the Journal of Agricultural Biological and Environmental<br>
Statistics (1999-2001)<br><br>
<br>
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